The elements in 2001’s "triangular crossfire," according to Mr. Croonenborch, were rising paper costs; high fixed costs associated with such ventures as Internet sites and niche supplements; and a drop in advertising revenues.

"The trigger was the ad market," Mr. Croonenborch said. From 1991 to 2000, advertising revenue growth posted an 80 percent gain - but 17 of those percentage points were erased in 2001.

"The economic downturn has brought us back to earth," Mr. Croonenborch said.

In some markets, newspaper price wars have added to the troubles - and the scramble over a static circulation market points up the three longer-range challenges facing the industry.

First of all, readership levels have remained nearly flat since the mid-1980s, and U.S. statistics indicate that readership in the 20-29 age group has fallen from 46 percent in 1972 to 19 percent in 2000. A similar trend shows up in the 30-39 age group, and Mr. Croonenborch sees little sign that the percentages will increase as those young readers get older.

"What is not won in the first place stays lost," he said.

Furthermore, the executive worried that the gifts and incentives offered to build circulation "put newspapers frequently in the role of a lottery ticket" - eroding the credibility of the profession. Finally, many publishers just aren’t marketing their products in a way that highlights the value of the newspaper.

To remedy the situation, Croonenborch says publishers should:

  Make clear what the newspaper stands for.
  Avoid frustrating the casual reader.
  Put some pace and rhythm in the newspaper, telling readers what is essential and what is incidental.
  Give readers what they want, but also provide an element of surprise.
  Stimulate readers to interact with their environment, to get involved with society.
  Stimulate readers to interact with the newspaper by giving ample space to their opinions.